September 2023
Navigation:
Go to Yearly Analysis.
Go to Weekly Analysis.
Go to Excess Deaths Page.
The data is based upon weekly deaths data from the US CDC spanning from 2015 to 2023.
Country: US
Source for Weekly Deaths (CDC): Weekly Counts of Death by Jurisdiction and Select Causes of Death.
Source for Vaccination data (CDC): COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States.
Source for Population Estimates (UN - Population division): UN table: Population estimates.
Comment on the available data and its limitations.
The CDC data on excess deaths and vaccination has several limitations that one should be aware of when analysing the charts below. Unlike the data from Eurostat (for European countries), the data for weekly deaths in the US is only available in broad age groups, namely (0-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+ and Total). Any analysis of the data does not allow us to observe the excess mortality on younger age groups with sufficient detail.
The CDC data on vaccination for the US as a whole is classified in different age groups from the age groups for weekly deaths. This poses a problem of how to show excess deaths versus vaccination rates for different age groups. The available vaccination age groups provided by the CDC are such that after some manipulation of the data, we can obtain vaccination rates for the following age groups: (0-5, 6-12, 13-18, 19-65, 65+ and Total).
To solve this problem, in the charts below we decided to match the excess deaths and vaccination age groups in the following way:
| Excess Deaths Age Group | Vaccination Age Group |
|---|---|
| 0-25 | 0-18 |
| 25-44 | 19-65 |
| 45-64 | 19-65 |
| 65-74 | 65+ |
| 75-84 | 65+ |
| 85+ | 65+ |
| Total | Total |
We obtain quarterly excess deaths estimates by aggregating in quarters, data that is based on our weekly analysis of excess deaths.
In order to estimate weekly excess mortality we perform a 2-step approach to estimate the baseline deaths. The first step is by estimating the trend in death rates using annual data as described in our methodology papers, while using method 2C.
The second step is to estimate weekly excess deaths by comparing deaths or death rates in a given week with the average death rate, which is computed using the average weekly frequency of deaths over a period of N-years (typically 5 to 10 years depending on the data availability). By using both methods in conjunction we obtain a trend adjusted and week of year adjusted estimate for excess mortality.
A quarterly analysis of excess deaths allows us to then use different metrics to estimate seasonally adjusted pattern in excess mortality. For example, we can compare excess mortality in Q1 of 2022 versus Q1 of 2021 to observe the impact of the vaccination policy on excess mortality.
The following chart shows the quarterly (annualised) excess mortality from 2020 to 2023, for different age groups. The Covid-19 vaccinations data (right hand scale) refers to the total accumulated doses at the end of each quarter, as a percentage of the respective age group population.
Please be aware that we matched the age groups as described in the data section above.
The user can specify the age group.
The following chart allows the user to perform quarter to quarter comparisons in excess mortality during 2020,2021 and 2022, for the different age groups.
This chart is particularly interesting to investigate excess mortality in seasonally equivalent periods in different years. The vaccine penetration rate for the end 0f 2021 is also shown. Please note that we matched the age groups as described in the data section above.
The interactive chart allows the user to specify the desired comparison quarter.
PHINANCE TECHNOLOGIES